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Monday, June 30, 2008

Can Apple possibly meet day one iPhone demand?

Overlooked in most of the hoopla of the July 11th iPhone 3G launch is a simple question: Will you even be able to get one?

With a launch in 21 countries on July 11th, this could easily be the biggest hardware launch in Apple history. In Spain, there are already 300,000 pre-orders according to Telefonica SA. Apple could easily be looking at a million phone opening day. Are that many iPhones ready to go? Somewhere in China, iPhone 3Gs are being "assembled" (never "made" in China). How many of those units can possibly be in place for a 21 country launch, not to mention the other 49 countries Apple has announced will have the phone "soon." It's probably also worth noting the "rollout schedule subject to change" disclaimer on the bottom of the Apple launch page.

The bigger question is, does it matter? If Apple can't get enough phones in place for day one, will buyers patiently wait, or will they consider other options. How long can Apple afford to have a Wii-like shortage of phones? Unlike the Wii, it doesn't look like there will be an easy way for people to stock up on the devices for profit on eBay. Will that help supply get to those who want it, or will phones still make their way into "alternative" channels?

More questions than answers, but if Apple is to be able to sustain phone availability from day one, across the globe, it's going to take more than a few rumors of trucks moving to distribution centers. It will require an Apple product move, the likes of which we've never seen before. Maybe getting in line early isn't such a bad idea after all...

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