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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Retail Number Not Revealed in The Quarterly Call



One big question remains regarding Apple's plans to weather the financial downturn: Will retail stores continue to open at the same pace?

Apple has plenty of cash on hand, and could easily move full speed ahead with store rollouts, and probably get some deals on rent as well. The downside though, could be for short-term investors. If the economy takes a few years to recover (however you define that), then Apple's strategy of continued store openings would pay off big a few years down the road. However, in the next 12-18 months, the stock price could be in for an even rougher ride. Analysts would be concerned about increasing operating expenses with, at least temporarily, lowered returns. And of course there's always the thought of Steve Jobs leaving Apple. Whether his health is fine or not, at some point, he'll be ready to take a reduced role in the company. He could keep going for another 40 years, or he could decide tomorrow he's had enough. Jobs seems to have been mentioning all the great people at Apple - an implication to remember the iPhones and Macs come out thanks to far more people than just him.

The situation isn't completely unlike Apple's initial retail rollout. After the U.S. financial decline following 9/11, Apple boldly moved forward with retail expansion. Doing the same now could put Apple in a position to reach a whole new market plateau in three to five years. That potential future payoff could come at the price of investor hand-wringing in the short-term.

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